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It's Christmas, despite the warm weather outside. And it's a new year. I thought last year was a watershed event in the evolution of CD technology, but I'm already beginning to think that if last year was the Flood, 1997 will be the Big Bang.

Disparate technologies are being thrust into strategic alliances before our eyes, and the hype of DVD is about to become reality, dragging other less noticeable surprises into the limelight. How many of us a year ago could envision the ubiquitous 'hybrid" or "connected" CD? How many of us ten years ago could realize the radical developments in interactivity which are transforming our corporate training practices?

Will a CD-R disc cost $1 by the 21st Century? I bought an Epson color printer last week for $279 which makes me feel like Michelangelo every time I print out a snapshot of my dog. And the picture of my dog was done on a digital camera!

It gets more difficult each year to keep track of all the developments in our field. Partly because the grey matter is getting creaky, I admit, but mostly because the technology is mushrooming like a baby monster. But our conference each May is charged with that mission: record the upcoming revolution, inform the world with the small details of the technology. Et cetera.

This is what Christmas and the New Year do for me. They remind me that the annual conference is around the corner next May. Practically next weekend. And what will we be seeing?

On SIGCAT 97:

There are exciting developments underway in CD technology that are fundamentally changing the ways in which we manage digital information in our organizations. There are many reasons for the excitement these developments have generated, not the least of which is plummeting costs. CD-ROMs are now so inexpensive to produce that complete multimedia encyclopedias that cost hundreds of dollars only a few years ago are now giveaway items at trade shows! 4X CD-ROM drives are now as cheap as floppy disk drives. A newly announced midrange CD jukebox holds 200 discs, includes two 8X drives, and costs under $5,500. CD-Recorders are available for less than $399. And the price of CD-R media, now hovering around $5 per disc, will drop even lower as new manufacturing plants come online during 1997. All of these developments are fueling a wide variety of CD applications that are now becoming so cost effective that they cannot be ignored.

SIGCAT '97 will be showcasing these new developments, with a particular emphasis on four application areas of CD technology: Connected CDs, Document Management, Computer-Based Training, and Networked Solutions. In addition, there are several emerging CD technologies such as DVD and packet writing that will be significantly influencing all of these application areas over the next several years. SIGCAT '97 will bring together the leading experts on these emerging technologies to provide some strategic insight as to where things are going and when we're going to get there.

On Connected CDs:

The World Wide Web has opened up a whole new dimension in digital communications. But as exciting as the possibilities are of linking to information sources anywhere in the world, there are definite limitations imposed by the current telecommunications infrastructure. Moving the large files typically associated with high-resolution graphics and video clips is still very tedious, if not downright impractical for the vast majority of Internet users. But CD technology has come to the rescue through innovative companies that have created "connected" CD products in conjunction with the growth of the Web. The user of a connected CD can explore all sorts of spectacular multimedia content and then simply click on a button to connect to the Web and get late-breaking information. We'll soon take virtual tours of everything from vacation resorts to fashion boutiques to college campuses and then simply connect to complete the transaction. These capabilities will radically redefine the classic business models as the exciting world of CD technology continues to push the limits of our collective imaginations.

But wait! There's more. An even newer development is emerging in which the connected CD is taken one step further and becomes a Web site on a disc. The capability now exists to readily capture huge chunks of Web content, including all of the hyperlinked pages, and place them on a CD-R or CD-ROM along with a powerful search engine. A user can then peruse an entire Web site offline, with instantaneous response times and the added luxury (some say necessity) of having everything organized and word searchable. In addition, such discs can still be linked with the Internet at the click of a mouse.

On Document Management:

The efforts being made in CD-R and jukebox technologies to provide increasingly attractive storage and access solutions are having a major impact on enterprise document management. As the costs of CD-R recorders, media, and jukeboxes continue to fall, subsystems based on these technologies are becoming extremely competitive in comparison with WORM and MO systems. When the inherent standards and widespread accessibility of the underlying media are considered, the case for CD-R becomes even more compelling. For example, a COLD system using CD-R as the basic storage medium can serve "digital printouts" to a high-speed centralized network as well as provide individual CD-R discs containing the same information for overnight shipment to field offices. The significance of this capability lies in the fact that, because of standards, the same medium is applicable to both high- and low-connectivity environments.

Document management systems based on CD-R technology are extremely scalable. An entry-level "desktop discing" system, complete with scanner, recorder, and all the necessary software for creating fully indexed CD-R discs, is available today for under $8,000. Larger systems capable of providing access to millions of documents for thousands of users also tend to be very cost effective because they are based on inherently low-cost components. Another powerful application for CD-R publishing systems is in the area of transaction management. Such things as billing records, drivers licenses, and canceled checks are but a few of the data types now being managed via CD-R systems.

On Computer-Based Training & Interactivity:

All organizations, regardless of their size, do training. Whether it's acquired on the job or through more structured approaches such as live instruction or videotape courses, training is generally recognized as a necessary investment in an organization's human capital. Recent studies are finding that this training can be significantly enhanced through the use of interactive multimedia techniques. The problem, however, has been finding a cost-effective way to deliver this new type of training.

Although videodisc-based systems have been around for a decade, their expense and inconvenience have limited their general acceptance. Other approaches, such as video-capable local-area networks (LANs), are relatively expensive. The real answer to delivering interactive computer-based training (CBT) to the desktop is actually already here. It's the multimedia system that's included in practically every PC delivered today. We've already got the ideal delivery system . All we need are the discs. Here's where CD-R comes in, allowing an organization to make just as many discs as it needs. And, as CBT authoring software continues to become more intuitive, organizations are increasingly able to develop their CBT discs in house. All these developments combine to produce a strong growth trend for CD-R-based CBT training.

On Networked Solutions:

Major advances in CD drives, changers, towers, and automated access mechanisms (commonly referred to as "jukeboxes") have expanded the scope of enterprise information management applications to the level of gigabyte or even terabyte file sizes. Networked access to these vast CD databases via LANs and intranets as well as the World Wide Web is now of prime importance to most chief information officers and information system managers. CD library systems incorporating massive CD drive arrays accessed through networks are permeating information-intensive organizations such as libraries and law firms.

The explosion in jukebox technology is forcing the migration of major databases in the gigabyte and terabyte range from mainframe-based disc farms to networked CDs for reasons of lower costs and higher accessibility. Placing a 600-disc jukebox on a network dramatically expands the number of users who can directly access data.

A wide variety of innovative approaches to CD networked information management will be discussed at SIGCAT '97, including serving HTML files from "un-hackable" CD-R discs, providing cross-platform CD mass storage access, implementing multiprotocol, low-cost CD network management, and managing multiple shared CDs across a network.

On Emerging Technologies:

One of the main reasons for attending SIGCAT '97 is simply to keep up with the new developments emerging in the field of CD technology. For example, CD-ROM drive speeds are now at 16X from several different manufacturers. These drives are capable of data transfers at over 19 megabits per second, which is an equivalent throughput of about a dozen high-speed T1 Internet lines all running at once! And then there's Digital Versatile Disc (DVD). This next generation of CD technology is about to emerge from the world's major technology companies and will increase the storage capacity of a single CD-ROM disc to over 18 gigabytes. When this new DVD capacity is eventually coupled with some of the larger jukebox systems now coming to market, systems capacities of over 10 terabytes in a single box start to become feasible.

Another development changing the ground rules in information management is the explosive growth in CD-R publishing systems. Many companies now have systems capable of automatically producing hundreds of professional-looking discs overnight. An entire cottage industry of digital publishing is about to be unleashed, driven by the combination of truly affordable CD-R publishing systems and a potential worldwide customer base with CD-capable computer systems that should number over half a billion by the year 2000.

On the Conference:

The SIGCAT conferences have grown considerably since the first one in 1992. We're very proud that our past conferences have won us the reputation for providing substance about the industry to our members. The Conference has evolved into an event at which the exchange of ideas is as central to its success as the opportunities to network. Let's face it: Making new contacts is a good reason for anybody to attend a conference. At SIGCAT '97, we guarantee new faces. But it's the potential for education which really gets me excited.

We had over 100 exhibitors last year, and more than a thousand bodies visited SIGCAT '96, creating headaches for those of us responsible for its efficiency and impact. Believe me, I felt a few of those aches as I wandered around the conference. But the five frenzied days of exhibits and speakers and meetings and renewed acquaintances could not overshadow the pleasure I derived from looking at the toys and wondering where we're all going.

Technology is evolving so rapidly that you'll be accused of being asleep if you blink for even an instant. At SIGCAT '97, we promise to keep your eyes wide open. See you there.

because of standards, the same medium is applicable to both high- and low-connectivity environments